Ovechkin returns as Capitals visit Canadiens

Hockey Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin will try to help the Washington Capitals avoid their first three-game slide in over two months, as the star forward returns from suspension today to battle the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.

Ovechkin was banned for three games for an illegal hit on Pittsburgh's Zbynek Michalek on Jan. 22 and Washington went 1-1-1 without him. The Russian sniper also opted to skip the All-Star weekend in Ottawa even though his suspension did not apply to the league's midseason showcase.

Ovechkin, a two-time Hart Trophy winner, is having a down year by his standards, but the 26-year-old Russian is still leading Washington with 20 goals and is second on the team with 39 points.

Both the Capitals and Canadiens will be seeking their first win after the All- Star break today. The Habs have dropped two straight in regulation since the break, while Washington suffered an overtime loss in Tampa on Tuesday before losing a key divisional matchup the following night at Florida. The Caps haven't lost three in a row since an 0-4 stretch from Nov. 25-Dec. 1.

The Capitals are currently sitting ninth in the East standings and are trailing Toronto by two points for the conference's last playoff seed. Washington is also three points in back of Florida for first place in the Southeast Division and the third seed in the East.

Washington missed an opportunity to keep first place in the division when it visited the Panthers on Wednesday. The Caps entered the game leading Florida by a point, but the Panthers posted a 4-2 win to leap past Washington and into first. Mikael Samuelsson tallied twice and Shawn Matthias provided a late insurance goal for Florida.

Brooks Laich and John Carlson tallied for the Capitals, while Michal Neuvirth allowed three goals on 37 shots for the loss.

"I thought we played hard. You don't like to lose like this," said Capitals head coach Dale Hunter. "We were in the game, but it's one of those things where you don't get the breaks you want."

Washington has dropped its last four games on the road and is completing a three-game swing today. The Caps are just 8-14-3 as the guest this year compared to an 18-6-1 mark in D.C.

The Canadiens were dealt a 3-1 loss by visiting Buffalo on Tuesday and then dropped a 5-3 decision Thursday in New Jersey. Montreal held leads of 2-0 and 3-1 over the Devils, but ultimately lost in regulation.

Andrei Kostitsyn, David Desharnais and Mathieu Darche all had goals for the Canadiens, while Carey Price gave up four goals on 21 shots in the loss.

"It's tough to blame the bounces, it was more that we didn't stick together for 60 minutes tonight," said Darche. "It's never over till it's over, but we've dug ourselves a big hole and losing these two games didn't help."

With 47 points, the Canadiens are tied for last in the Eastern Conference and are 11 points out of a playoff spot.

Montreal is kicking off a three-game homestand today and is just 9-10-7 in Quebec this season.

The Canadiens and Caps have met just once this season and that was in Montreal on Jan. 18, when Washington notched a 3-0 win to take its third straight decision in this series. Neuvirth made 31 saves to post the shutout in that outing and Ovechkin scored one of Washington's three goals.

Washington has also claimed three straight in Montreal and is 4-0-1 in its last five trips to the Bell Centre.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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